Long-term rise in riverine dissolved organic carbon concentration is predicted by electrolyte solubility theory

Monteith, Donald T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-1772; Henrys, Peter A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4758-1482; Hruška, Jakub; de Wit, Heleen A.; Krám, Pavel; Moldan, Filip; Posch, Maximilian; Räike, Antti; Stoddard, John L.; Shilland, Ewan M.; Pereira, M. Gloria ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3740-0019; Evans, Chris D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7052-354X. 2023 Long-term rise in riverine dissolved organic carbon concentration is predicted by electrolyte solubility theory. Science Advances, 9 (3), eade3491. 10, pp. 10.1126/sciadv.ade3491

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Abstract/Summary

The riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux is of similar magnitude to the terrestrial sink for atmospheric CO2, but the factors controlling it remain poorly determined and are largely absent from Earth system models (ESMs). Here, we show, for a range of European headwater catchments, that electrolyte solubility theory explains how declining precipitation ionic strength (IS) has increased the dissolution of thermally moderated pools of soluble soil organic matter (OM), while hydrological conditions govern the proportion of this OM entering the aquatic system. Solubility will continue to rise exponentially with declining IS until pollutant ion deposition fully flattens out under clean air policies. Future DOC export will increasingly depend on rates of warming and any directional changes to the intensity and seasonality of precipitation and marine ion deposition. Our findings provide a firm foundation for incorporating the processes dominating change in this component of the global carbon cycle in ESMs.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1126/sciadv.ade3491
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-) Pollution (Science Area 2017-) Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2375-2548
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	13 Feb 2023 12:13 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533951

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