Probabilistic approaches to coastal risk decision-making under future sea level projections

Spencer, Tom; Dobson, Mike; Christie, Elizabeth; Eyres, Richard; Manson, Sue; Downie, Steve; Hibbert, Angela

Spencer, Tom; Dobson, Mike; Christie, Elizabeth; Eyres, Richard; Manson, Sue; Downie, Steve; Hibbert, Angela ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2529-0190. 2023 Probabilistic approaches to coastal risk decision-making under future sea level projections. Oceanography. 10.5670/oceanog.2023.s1.20

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Abstract

Coastal communities are increasingly threatened by flooding from climate change-induced sea level rise and potential increases in storminess. Informed decisions on risk and resilience related to flood risk need to be made, but the assessment process is complex. It is difficult to bring all of the climate science and sea level rise projections to decision-making, and as a result, decisions are made without a real understanding of the uncertainties involved, a problem magnified the further projections go into the future (Figure 1).

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