A European-Chinese exploration. Part 2 - Urban ecosystem service patterns, processes, and contributions to environmental equity under different scenarios

Urban expansion and ecological restoration policies can simultaneously affect land-cover changes and further affect ecosystem services (ES). However, it is unclear whether and to what extent the distribution and equity of urban ES are influenced by the stage of urban development and government policies. This study aims to assess the quantity and equity of ES under different scenarios in cites of China and Europe. Firstly, we used the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model to simulate future land cover under three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), a market-liberal scenario (MLS), and an ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then using ecosystem service model approaches and the landscape analysis, the dynamics of green infrastructure (GI) fraction and connectivity, carbon sequestration, and PM2.5 removal were further evaluated. The results show that: (1) over the past 20 years, Chinese cities have experienced dramatic changes in land cover and ES relative to European cities. (2) Two metropolises in China, Shanghai and Beijing have experienced an increase in the fraction and connectivity of GI and ES in the long-term built-up areas between 2010 and 2020. (3) EPS scenarios are not only effective in increasing the quantity of ES but also in improving the equity of ES distribution. The proposed framework as well as the results may provide important guidance for future urban planning and sustainable city development.