A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification

Selva, Jacopo; Sandri, Laura; Taroni, Matteo; Sulpizio, Roberto; Tierz, Pablo; Costa, Antonio. 2022 A simple two-state model interprets temporal modulations in eruptive activity and enhances multivolcano hazard quantification. Science Advances, 8 (44), 4415. 10.1126/sciadv.abq4415

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq4415

Abstract/Summary

Volcanic activity typically switches between high-activity states with many eruptions and low-activity states with few or no eruptions. We present a simple two-regime physics-informed statistical model that allows interpreting temporal modulations in eruptive activity. The model enhances comprehension and comparison of different volcanic systems and enables homogeneous integration into multivolcano hazard assessments that account for potential changes in volcanic regimes. The model satisfactorily fits the eruptive history of the three active volcanoes in the Neapolitan area, Italy (Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia) which encompass a wide range of volcanic behaviors. We find that these volcanoes have appreciably different processes for triggering and ending high-activity periods connected to different dominant volcanic processes controlling their eruptive activity, with different characteristic times and activity rates (expressed as number of eruptions per time interval). Presently, all three volcanoes are judged to be in a low-activity state, with decreasing probability of eruptions for Mt. Vesuvius, Ischia, and Campi Flegrei, respectively.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1126/sciadv.abq4415
ISSN:	2375-2548
Date made live:	06 Dec 2022 15:03 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533687

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1126/sciadv.abq4415

ISSN:

2375-2548

Date made live:

06 Dec 2022 15:03 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533687