Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia

Ritchie, Paul D.L.; Parry, Isobel; Clarke, Joseph J.; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Cox, Peter M.. 2022 Increases in the temperature seasonal cycle indicate long-term drying trends in Amazonia. Communications Earth & Environment, 3, 199. 8, pp. 10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0

Abstract/Summary

Earth System Models project a wide range of rainfall changes in the Amazon rainforest, and hence changes in soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Hydrological changes are heterogeneous, meaning local measurements are too sparse to constrain projections of large-scale hydrological change. Here we show that changes in the amplitude of the temperature seasonal cycle are strongly correlated with annual mean evaporative fraction (surface latent heat flux as a fraction of surface net radiation) changes, across reanalyses and Earth System Model projections. We find an increase in annual temperature amplitude of 1 °C is associated with a reduction in evaporative fraction of up to 0.04. The observed temperature seasonal cycle amplitude increase (0.4 °C) over the last three decades implies Amazon drying, determined in the absence of soil or energy flux measurements, matches Earth System Model simulations of the recent past. Additionally, Earth System Models predict further temperature seasonal cycle amplitude increases, suggesting drying will continue with future climate change.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2662-4435
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate and Earth system modelling, climate-change impacts
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	26 Oct 2022 09:50 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533429

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1038/s43247-022-00528-0

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2662-4435

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

climate and Earth system modelling, climate-change impacts