Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes

Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Sayers, Paul B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2160-1959. 2023 Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 16 (1), e12863. 15, pp. 10.1111/jfr3.12863

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Abstract/Summary

An increase in extreme weather events is leading to increased flood occurrence and risk in many areas. Although climate mitigation strategies are being implemented, it is widely accepted that societies must adapt to climate variability and climate change. Traditional climate change impact studies have used projections for future time-slices, often for a range of possible emissions scenarios. Recently however, there has been a move to instead consider climate change impacts relative to global mean surface temperature (GMST) change, to try to encourage action to avoid the more severe impacts from higher GMST changes. To support adaptation planning, more localised information on impacts is required. Here, data on the potential range of changes in flood peaks is generated by combining flood response surfaces and the new UK Climate Projections 2018, for every river cell on a 1 km grid across Britain, for GMST changes of 1–4.5°C. The results show significant spatial variation, with impacts typically higher in the west than the east, and generally increasing with GMST change. Some southern regions show flood peak changes accelerating with GMST change. The changes in flood peaks can be translated into changes in flood inundation and associated flood risk under alternative adaptation assumptions.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1111/jfr3.12863
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1753-318X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, flooding, hydrological modelling, probabilistic projections, UKCP18
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Date made live:	20 Feb 2023 15:44 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533379

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