Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6

Bracegirdle, T.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8868-4739. 2022 Early‐to-late winter 20th century North Atlantic multidecadal atmospheric variability in observations, CMIP5 and CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (11), e2022GL098212. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212

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Official URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.102...

Abstract/Summary

The strong multi-decadal variability in North Atlantic (NA) winter atmospheric circulation is poorly understood and appears too weak in climate models. Recent research has shown peak atmospheric multi-decadal variability over the NA in late winter, particularly March, linked to Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) of the ocean. Here a range of NA atmospheric circulation indices are assessed to provide a comprehensive picture of early-to-late winter low-frequency variability and its representation in the latest generation of climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)). As found for CMIP5, CMIP6 models exhibit too-weak multi-decadal NA atmospheric variability compared to reanalysis data over the period 1862-2005. Consistent with previous research, the eastern part of the NA westerly jet (U700NA) exhibits peak low-frequency variability in March. However, for NA-wide jet speed and the NAO, low-frequency variability and model-reanalysis discrepancies are strongest in January and February, associated with too-weak NA ocean-atmosphere linkages.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212
ISSN:	0094-8276
Additional Keywords:	CMIP5, CMIP6, Low frequency variability, climate model, reanalysis
Date made live:	30 May 2022 09:32 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098212

ISSN:

0094-8276

Additional Keywords:

CMIP5, CMIP6, Low frequency variability, climate model, reanalysis

Date made live:

30 May 2022 09:32 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/532678