LANDSLIP knowledge product : landslide forecasting

A landslide forecast provides an estimation of the
likelihood of landslides occurring within a specific location
and time period in the future. Regional-scale landslide
forecasting systems rely on landslide forecasting models.
The forecasting models developed in LANDSLIP focus
on forecasting rainfall-induced landslides at a regional
scale.They build on historical information about landslide
occurrence and their associated rainfall trigger conditions
in the two pilot study areas. LANDSLIP’s prototype
models run daily, and attempt to forecast the likelihood of
landslides occurring in these study areas, given rainfall
forecasts and information based on local landslide
susceptibility.
This document provides an overview of the landslide
forecast models used or explored by LANDSLIP. It
describes the various approaches used, their main
assumptions and limitations, and highlights model
calibration and evaluation phases. It concludes with a
summary of recommendations for others interested in
landslide risk management, data management, decisionmaking
and communication of risk.