An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions

Palmer, M D; Domingues, C M ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5100-4595; Slangen, A B A; Boeira Dias, F. 2021 An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (4), 044043. 10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec

Before downloading, please read NORA policies.

[thumbnail of Palmer_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_044043.pdf]

Preview

Text
Palmer_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_044043.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.
Download (631kB) | Preview

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec

Abstract/Summary

We present an ensemble approach to quantify historical global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions. This approach combines the maximum internal uncertainty across the ensemble with an estimate of structural uncertainty to provide a conservative estimate of the total uncertainty. Comparisons of GMSL rise over the 20th century based on deltas and linear trends (and their respective uncertainties) are consistent with past Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments and show good agreement with satellite altimeter timeseries. Sensitivity tests show that our estimates of GMSL rise are robust to the choice of reference period and central estimate timeseries. The methods proposed in this study are generic and could be easily applied to other global or regional climate change indicators.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec
ISSN:	1748-9326
Date made live:	23 Nov 2021 15:43 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531402

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec

ISSN:

1748-9326

Date made live:

23 Nov 2021 15:43 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531402