Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming

Thompson, J.R.; Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.; Laize, C.L.R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7560-7769. 2021 Increasing risk of ecological change to major rivers of the world with global warming. Earth's Future, 9 (11), e2021EF002048. 20, pp. 10.1029/2021EF002048

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Abstract/Summary

The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems. This study assesses risks of ecological change in 321 major river basins across the globe due to global warming relative to pre-industrial conditions of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C. Risks associated with climate-driven changes to high and low flows, relative to baseline (1980–2010; 0.6°C warming), are investigated using simulations from nine global hydrological models forced with climate projections from five global climate models, resulting in an ensemble of 14,445 baseline-scenario members for each warming scenario (9 × 5 × 321). At the global-scale, the likelihood of high risks of significant ecological change in both high and low flows increase with global warming: across all basins there is a medium-high risk of change in high (low) flows in 21.4% (22.4%) of ensemble members for 1.0°C warming, increasing to 61.5% (63.2%) for 3.0°C. Risks are particularly pronounced for low flows at 3.0°C for many rivers in South America, southern Africa, Australia, southern Europe and central and eastern USA. Results suggest that boreal regions are least likely to see significant ecological change due to modified river flows but this may be partly the result of the exclusion of processes such as permafrost dynamics from most global hydrological models. The study highlights the ecological fragility and spatial heterogeneity of the risks that unmitigated climate change poses to global river ecosystems.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2021EF002048
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2328-4277
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change, environmental flows, river ecology, global hydrology, high flows, low flows
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Hydrology
Date made live:	02 Nov 2021 12:26 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531333

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