Simulating seasonal to multi-decadal variation in lake thermal response to meteorological forcing using the UCLAKE 1-dimensional model code

Lake temperature responses to climate forcing are of interest on account of the important linkages between water temperature and ecosystem processes. This paper describes a new 1-dimensional (1D) numerical model code and its application to investigations of multi-scale linkages between the vertical temperature structure and meteorological forcing. UCLAKE is implemented as highly portable open-source software, based on computationally efficient algorithms, and able to resolve sub-daily (e.g., hourly) dynamics while retaining the efficiency to simulate multi-decadal time scales. A UCLAKE model is calibrated and validated against thermistor profile time series for a small upland lake in North Wales, UK. Some of the challenges in 1D model calibration are explored and a sensitivity analysis reveals a dependence of optimal parameter set values on water column depth and time. An exploratory 52-year hindcast simulation demonstrates the computational efficiency of UCLAKE for multi-decadal studies of trends in lake temperature that vary with depth. A supplementary application of UCLAKE to Windermere, in the English Lake District, demonstrates its performance for larger and deeper lakes.