Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Sullivan, Martin J.P.; Lewis, Simon L.; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Costa, Flávia; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Ewango, Corneille E.N.; Hubau, Wannes; Marimon, Beatriz; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Qie, Lan; Sonké, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Baker, Timothy R.; Brienen, Roel J.W.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Almeida, Everton C.; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J.M.M.; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C., Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabrício B.; Banin, Lindsay F.; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean-François; Batterman, Sarah A.; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K.; Bennett, Amy C.; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brncic, Terry; Brown, Foster; Burban, Benoit; Camargo, José Luís; Castro, Wendeson; Céron, Carlos; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chave, Jerôme; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J.; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Collins, Murray; Comiskey, James A.; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Medina, Massiel Corrales; da Costa, Lola; Dančák, Martin; Dargie, Greta C.; Davies, Stuart; Cardozo, Nallaret Davila; de Haulleville, Thales; de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Derroire, Géraldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Dourdain, Aurélie; Droissart, Vincent; Duque, Luisa Fernanda; Ekoungoulou, Romeo; Elias, Fernando; Erwin, Terry; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Fauset, Sophie; Ferreira, Joice; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Foli, Ernest; Ford, Andrew; Gilpin, Martin; Hall, Jefferson S.; Hamer, Keith C.; Hamilton, Alan C.; Harris, David J.; Hart, Terese B.; Hédl, Radim; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Higuchi, Niro; Hladik, Annette; Coronado, Eurídice Honorio; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Jeffery, Kathryn J.; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Djuikouo, Marie Noël Kamdem; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Kho, Lip Khoon; Killeen, Timothy; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Klitgaard, Bente; Koch, Alexander; Labrière, Nicolas; Laurance, William; Laurance, Susan; Leal, Miguel E.; Levesley, Aurora; Lima, Adriano J.N.; Lisingo, Janvier; Lopes, Aline P.; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Tom; Lovett, Jon C.; Lowe, Richard; Magnusson, William E.; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Manzatto, Ângelo Gilberto; Marimon, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Marthews, Toby; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Maycock, Colin; Melgaço, Karina; Mendoza, Casimiro; Metali, Faizah; Mihindou, Vianet; Milliken, William; Mitchard, Edward T.A.; Morandi, Paulo S.; Mossman, Hannah L.; Nagy, Laszlo; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Palacios, Walter; Camacho, Nadir Pallqui; Peacock, Julie; Pendry, Colin; Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina; Pickavance, Georgia C.; Pipoly, John; Pitman, Nigel; Playfair, Maureen; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, John R.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Preziosi, Richard; Prieto, Adriana; Primack, Richard B.; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Bayona, Lily Rodriguez; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustín; Rutishauser, Ervan; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Salomão, Rafael P.; Schietti, Juliana; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Richarlly C.; Espejo, Javier Silva; Valeria, Camila Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Simo-Droissart, Murielle; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Singh, James; Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos; Stahl, Clement; Stropp, Juliana; Sukri, Rahayu; Sunderland, Terry; Svátek, Martin; Swaine, Michael D.; Swamy, Varun; Taedoumg, Hermann; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James; Taylor, David; ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Thomas, Sean C.; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Umunay, Peter; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; van der Meer, Peter; van Nieuwstadt, Mark; Verbeeck, Hans; Vernimmen, Ronald; Vicentini, Alberto; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent; Wang, Ophelia; White, Lee J.T.; Willcock, Simon; Woods, John T.; Wortel, Verginia; Young, Kenneth; Zagt, Roderick; Zemagho, Lise; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Zwerts, Joeri A.; Phillips, Oliver L.

Sullivan, Martin J.P.; Lewis, Simon L.; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Costa, Flávia; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Ewango, Corneille E.N.; Hubau, Wannes; Marimon, Beatriz; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Qie, Lan; Sonké, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Baker, Timothy R.; Brienen, Roel J.W.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alexiades, Miguel N.; Almeida, Everton C.; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric J.M.M.; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C., Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabrício B.; Banin, Lindsay F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1168-3914; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean-François; Batterman, Sarah A.; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K.; Bennett, Amy C.; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q.; Brncic, Terry; Brown, Foster; Burban, Benoit; Camargo, José Luís; Castro, Wendeson; Céron, Carlos; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chave, Jerôme; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J.; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Collins, Murray; Comiskey, James A.; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Medina, Massiel Corrales; da Costa, Lola; Dančák, Martin; Dargie, Greta C.; Davies, Stuart; Cardozo, Nallaret Davila; de Haulleville, Thales; de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Derroire, Géraldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Dourdain, Aurélie; Droissart, Vincent; Duque, Luisa Fernanda; Ekoungoulou, Romeo; Elias, Fernando; Erwin, Terry; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Fauset, Sophie; Ferreira, Joice; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Foli, Ernest; Ford, Andrew; Gilpin, Martin; Hall, Jefferson S.; Hamer, Keith C.; Hamilton, Alan C.; Harris, David J.; Hart, Terese B.; Hédl, Radim; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Higuchi, Niro; Hladik, Annette; Coronado, Eurídice Honorio; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Jeffery, Kathryn J.; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Djuikouo, Marie Noël Kamdem; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Kho, Lip Khoon; Killeen, Timothy; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Klitgaard, Bente; Koch, Alexander; Labrière, Nicolas; Laurance, William; Laurance, Susan; Leal, Miguel E.; Levesley, Aurora; Lima, Adriano J.N.; Lisingo, Janvier; Lopes, Aline P.; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Tom; Lovett, Jon C.; Lowe, Richard; Magnusson, William E.; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Manzatto, Ângelo Gilberto; Marimon, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R.; Marthews, Toby ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3727-6468; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Maycock, Colin; Melgaço, Karina; Mendoza, Casimiro; Metali, Faizah; Mihindou, Vianet; Milliken, William; Mitchard, Edward T.A.; Morandi, Paulo S.; Mossman, Hannah L.; Nagy, Laszlo; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Palacios, Walter; Camacho, Nadir Pallqui; Peacock, Julie; Pendry, Colin; Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina; Pickavance, Georgia C.; Pipoly, John; Pitman, Nigel; Playfair, Maureen; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, John R.; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Preziosi, Richard; Prieto, Adriana; Primack, Richard B.; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Bayona, Lily Rodriguez; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustín; Rutishauser, Ervan; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Salomão, Rafael P.; Schietti, Juliana; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Richarlly C.; Espejo, Javier Silva; Valeria, Camila Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Simo-Droissart, Murielle; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Singh, James; Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos; Stahl, Clement; Stropp, Juliana; Sukri, Rahayu; Sunderland, Terry; Svátek, Martin; Swaine, Michael D.; Swamy, Varun; Taedoumg, Hermann; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James; Taylor, David; ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Thomas, Sean C.; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Umunay, Peter; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; van der Meer, Peter; van Nieuwstadt, Mark; Verbeeck, Hans; Vernimmen, Ronald; Vicentini, Alberto; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent; Wang, Ophelia; White, Lee J.T.; Willcock, Simon; Woods, John T.; Wortel, Verginia; Young, Kenneth; Zagt, Roderick; Zemagho, Lise; Zuidema, Pieter A.; Zwerts, Joeri A.; Phillips, Oliver L.. 2020 Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science, 368 (6493). 869-874. 10.1126/science.aaw7578

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Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

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