Using modelling to investigate the effectiveness of national surveillance monitoring aimed at detecting a Xylella fastidiosa outbreak in Scotland

Xylella fastidiosa is an important bacterial plant pathogen with a wide host range, causing significant economic impact in the agricultural and horticultural trades. Once restricted to the Americas, new severe outbreaks have recently been discovered in Italy, Spain and France, and to a lesser extent in other countries. Given the ever increasing global plant trade, the likelihood of this potentially devastating plant disease being introduced to novel locations, such as Scotland, is also increasing. Therefore, understanding the potential spread in novel locations is important for accurate risk assessment and mitigation strategies. The Scottish Plant Health Centre requested a preliminary exploration of this potential threat in a Scottish context, with a view of informing contingency planning, which we address here.