Probabilistic drought risk analysis for even-aged forests

We analyse drought risks to tree growth in Europe, using observations from forest stands covering a wide range of climatic conditions in France, Germany, Denmark and Spain. The data consist of time series of tree stem diameter and basal area. We employ a recently developed method of probabilistic risk analysis that formally decomposes the risk as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability (R=p(H)*V). The method is extended here with equations that quantify the uncertainties of the three terms. The risk analysis shows that in many parts of Europe drought losses have been moderate. We discuss how future increases in drought-risk may be managed.