Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment — the case of the Czech Republic

Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Trnka, Miroslav; Harrison, Paula ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338; Holman, Ian. 2019 Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment — the case of the Czech Republic. Regional Environmental Change, 19 (8). 2453-2464. 10.1007/s10113-019-01558-9

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01558-9

Abstract/Summary

Assessing the combined impacts of future climate and socio-economic change at the country level is vital for supporting national adaptation policies. Here, we use a novel modelling approach to study the systemic impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on the Czech Republic, taking account of cross-sectoral interactions between agriculture, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity, and, for the first time, trans-national interactions. We evaluate the national-level baseline results, scenario-neutral model sensitivities, and climate and socio-economic scenario impacts using a European-scale integrated modelling tool. Consistently across most climate and socio-economic scenarios, the Czech Republic is projected to have increasing importance as a crop-growing region in Europe, due to an increased competitive advantage within the continent. Arable land in the Czech Republic expands, at the expense of livestock farming and forestry, with associated impacts of increased water scarcity and reduced biodiversity for the country. Accounting for trans-national interactions in national-scale assessments provides more realistic assessments of impacts and helps to identify the changing role of the country within its regional and continental domain. Such improved understanding can support policy-makers in developing national adaptation actions that reduce adverse impacts and realise opportunities.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1007/s10113-019-01558-9
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1436-3798
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	shared socio-economic pathways, representative concentration pathways, adaptation, models
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	30 Oct 2019 17:11 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525713

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1007/s10113-019-01558-9

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

1436-3798

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

shared socio-economic pathways, representative concentration pathways, adaptation, models