Assessing the skill of the UK Hydrological Outlook

Boorman, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6436-5266; Turner, Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8358-8775. 2019 Assessing the skill of the UK Hydrological Outlook. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (15). 1932-1942. 10.1080/02626667.2019.1679375

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Abstract/Summary

The UK Hydrological Outlook (UKHO) is a seasonal forecast of future river flows and groundwater levels. The UKHO contains both presentations of outputs from models simulating future conditions and a high-level summary. The summary is produced by an expert panel of forecasters that considers the model outputs together with other recent hydrological and meteorological information. Whilst the skill and uncertainty of the individual models have been explored and published, this study sets out to establish the performance of the high-level summary, and presents such an assessment of the river flow forecasts at the 1-month timescale. Both qualitative and quantitative assessments are presented and compared with two naïve forecasting methods. The UKHO summary is found to have a similar Gerrity skill score to a “same as last month” forecast, an outcome that generates suggestions for improvements in how the different model outputs should be considered and presented in the high-level summary.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1080/02626667.2019.1679375
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0262-6667
Additional Keywords:	forecasting, prediction, modelling, rainfall, river flow, water resources
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Date made live:	17 Oct 2019 13:35 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/525444

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