The emperor penguin - vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss

Trathan, Philip N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6673-9930; Wienecke, Barbara; Barbraud, Christophe; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Kooyman, Gerald; Le Bohec, Céline; Ainley, David G.; Ancel, André; Zitterbart, Daniel P.; Chown, Stephen L.; LaRue, Michelle; Cristofari, Robin; Younger, Jane; Clucas, Gemma; Bost, Charles-André; Brown, Jennifer A.; Gillett, Harriet J.; Fretwell, Peter T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1988-5844. 2020 The emperor penguin - vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss. Biological Conservation, 241, 108216. 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216

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Abstract/Summary

We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodyptes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216
ISSN:	0006-3207
Additional Keywords:	Antarctic; Climate change; Aptenodyptes forsteri; IUCN Red List threat status; protection; conservation
Date made live:	17 Oct 2019 09:36 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/524970

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216

ISSN:

0006-3207

Additional Keywords:

Antarctic; Climate change; Aptenodyptes forsteri; IUCN Red List threat status; protection; conservation

Date made live:

17 Oct 2019 09:36 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/524970