Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: a scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region

Zúñiga-Upegui, P.; Arnaiz-Schmitz, C.; Herrero-Jáuregui, C.; Smart, S.M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2750-7832; López-Santiago, C.A.; Schmitz, M.F.. 2019 Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: a scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region. Science of the Total Environment, 695, 133874. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133874

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133874

Abstract/Summary

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systemswhere naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133874
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0048-9697
Additional Keywords:	land planning, scenario-based approach, peacebuilding process, warfare ecology, post-conflict society
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	09 Sep 2019 10:22 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/524854

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133874

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Soils and Land Use (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

0048-9697

Additional Keywords:

land planning, scenario-based approach, peacebuilding process, warfare ecology, post-conflict society

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment