Southern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in CMIP5 and future changes in the Australia‐New Zealand sector

Patterson, Matthew; Bracegirdle, Thomas ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8868-4739; Woolings, Tim. 2019 Southern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in CMIP5 and future changes in the Australia‐New Zealand sector. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (15). 9281-9290. 10.1029/2019GL083264

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Text (Open Access) ©2019. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Patterson_et_al-2019-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract/Summary

Many general circulation models fail to capture the observed frequency of atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere; however, few studies have examined models in the Southern Hemisphere and those studies that have, have often been based on only a few models. To provide a comprehensive view of how the current generation of coupled general circulation models performs in the Southern Hemisphere and how blocking frequency changes under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing, we examine the output of 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that models have differing biases during winter, when blocking occurrence is highest, though models underestimate blocking frequency south of Australia during summer. We show that models generally have a reduction in blocking frequency with future anthropogenic forcing, particularly in the Australia‐New Zealand sector with the number of winter blocked days reduced by about one third by the end of the 21st century.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1029/2019GL083264
ISSN:	0094-8276
Additional Keywords:	atmospheric blocking, Southern Hemisphere, climate change
Date made live:	14 Aug 2019 09:31 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/524740

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