The role of ocean dynamics in king penguin range estimation

In a recent Article, Cristofari et al.1 discuss the impact that movements of the Antarctic Polar Front have had on historical king penguin populations, and make future projections based on potential climate change scenarios. They predict that 70% of the world’s breeding population will be severely impacted as the Polar Front, with its nutrient-rich upwelling and high productivity, moves polewards beyond the foraging range of many penguin colonies. We highlight here, however, that a detailed analysis of the models used does not support the projection of a poleward shift in the Polar Front’s future position, and that recent analyses show no evidence for such a shift having occurred in the last several decades.