Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment

Collet, Lila; Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Formetta, Giuseppe; Beevers, Lindsay. 2018 Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (10). 5387-5401. 10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018

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Abstract/Summary

In an increasing hydro-climatic risk context as a result of climate change, this work aims to identify future hydro-hazard hot-spots as a result of climate change across Great Britain. First, flood and drought hazards were defined and selected in a consistent and parallel approach with a threshold method. Then, a nation-wide systematic and robust statistical framework was developed to quantify changes in frequency, magnitude, and duration, and assess time of year for both droughts and floods, and the uncertainty associated with climate model projections. This approach was applied to a spatially coherent statistical database of daily river flows (Future Flows Hydrology) across Great Britain to assess changes between the baseline (1961–1990) and the 2080s (2069–2098). The results showed that hydro-hazard hot-spots are likely to develop along the western coast of England and Wales and across north-eastern Scotland, mainly during the winter (floods) and autumn (droughts) seasons, with a higher increase in drought hazard in terms of magnitude and duration. These results suggest a need for adapting water management policies in light of climate change impact, not only on the magnitude, but also on the timing of hydro-hazard events, and future policy should account for both extremes together, alongside their potential future evolution.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-) Water Resources (Science Area 2017-) UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	1027-5606
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology
Date made live:	01 Nov 2018 13:05 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521420

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