The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimised Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays

McCarthy, G.D.; Menary, M.B.; Mecking, J.V.; Moat, B.I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8676-7779; Johns, W.E.; Andrews, M.; Rayner, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2283-4140; Smeed, D.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1740-1778. 2017 The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimised Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (3). 1808-1826. 10.1002/2016JC012200

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Abstract/Summary

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full-depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real-time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real-time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1002/2016JC012200
ISSN:	2169-9291
Additional Keywords:	Atlantic overturning; climate model; AMOC; observing systems; mooring array; climate change
Date made live:	25 Jan 2017 14:05 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/516041

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1002/2016JC012200

ISSN:

2169-9291

Additional Keywords:

Atlantic overturning; climate model; AMOC; observing systems; mooring array; climate change

Date made live:

25 Jan 2017 14:05 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/516041