Geomagnetic jerks in the Swarm Era

The timely provision of geomagnetic observations as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm mission means up-to-date analysis and modelling of the Earth’s magnetic field can be conducted rapidly in a manner not possible before. Observations from each of the three Swarm constellation satellites are available within 4 days and a database of close-to-definitive ground observatory measurements is updated every 3 months. This makes it possible to study very recent variations of the core magnetic field. Here we investigate rapid, unpredictable internal field variations known as geomagnetic jerks. Given that jerks represent (currently) unpredictable changes in the core field and have been identified to have happened in 2014 since Swarm was launched, we ask what impact this might have on the future accuracy of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). We assess the performance of each of the IGRF-12 secular variation model candidates in light of recent jerks, given that four of the nine candidates are novel physics-based predictive models.