A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Santini, Luca; Cornulier, Thomas; Bullock, James M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0529-4020; Palmer, Stephen C.F.; White, Steven M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3192-9969; Hodgson, Jenny A.; Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin M.J.. 2016 A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change? Global Change Biology, 22 (7). 2415-2424. 10.1111/gcb.13271

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Abstract/Summary

Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15,000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life-history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal dataset using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life-history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait-space-demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	10.1111/gcb.13271
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Pywell
ISSN:	1354-1013
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate change velocity, demographic models, dispersal, integrodifference equations, life-history traits, population spread rate, range shift, rangeShifter, trait space, virtual species
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Mathematics
Date made live:	18 Apr 2016 10:08 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513256

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