Novel river eco-hydrological systems projected for Europe

Future flows in rivers throughout Europe were computed for different combinations of climate models and socio-economic scenarios for a baseline (1961-1990) and for the future (2050s). Sets of indicators describing all ecologically-relevant facets of river flow regime were derived. Eco-hydrological regime types were defined using classification techniques applied to these indicators. Projected future flow alterations (2050s) for major European rivers were mapped in terms of eco-hydrological types and compared with maps for the baseline situation. It was found that for many river reaches their regime would remain broadly similar (in the same class), for other reaches the regime would alter to be more similar to another class. For some reaches the eco-hydrological regime would change to a novel form not currently seen in Europe, with the potential to create new river ecosystems.