Extreme climates : a UK - North Atlantic ocean-margin perspective

This report provides a draft prospectus that maps a way forward for BGS science research into climate change, with particular emphasis on the ocean-margin record. The information presented is based on core activity and research undertaken by the Continental Shelf and Margins programme (CSM), including national and international collaboration. The emphasis has been to compile an overview statement on the current status of climate-related research within the CSM, with a view to assessing its potential relevance to the emerging BGS Science Programme 2005– 2010 and beyond. The report begins with a summary of the key themes relevant to any understanding of environmental change, namely: Forcing Mechanisms (internal and external to Earth); Long-Term Climate Change; and, Short-Term Climate Change. Accurate predictions of future climate change can only be established by understanding how the climate has reached its present state. As the Earth has been an icehouse world since late Eocene time, an understanding of the Cenozoic evolution of the North Atlantic region is of paramount importance in unravelling this puzzle. The consequences of forcing mechanisms are clear on ocean margins around the North Atlantic region, where they have driven changes in sedimentary, oceanographic and glacial dynamics. However, the linkage between internal and external forces, and their relative contributions to change remain unclear. The establishment of a better event chronology for the North Atlantic region would help to resolve this issue. From an ocean-margin perspective, the way forward should incorporate better regional correlations and syntheses, and properly co-ordinated strategic sampling, drilling and core analysis. Within the framework of the CSM, four detailed scientific objectives are proposed: