Predicting the risk of losing parcels of semi-natural habitat to intensive agriculture

Analysis of detailed data on habitat turnover derived from the Countryside Survey of Great Britain indicates that some types of habitat conversion can be predicted. We report that parcels of semi-natural grassland were more likely to have been converted to intensive agriculture if they were large, had a high nutrient status and were in the proximity of land that has already been intensified; three variables indicating an environmental potential for intensification. Most of the conversions predicted by the models were observed (high specificity) but a substantial number of conversions were not predicted (low sensitivity), indicating that the models could be refined by integrating additional information. We suggest that the ecological and spatial characteristics of individual parcels of semi-natural habitats and their surrounding land use should be used as a basis to assess the risk of biodiversity loss in dynamic agricultural landscapes.