Predicting the effect of habitat change on waterfowl communities: a novel empirical approach

Natural environmental changes, such as coastal erosion, and human developments, ranging from roads and marinas to global climate change, are leading to much habitat change in wetlands. It would be valuable to conservationists, governments and developers tob be able to predict the likely act of such evolution on the internationally important waterbird populationsin European wetlands. We present a method, based on relatively easily and cheaply determined environmental variables, which allows the effect of habitat Change on estuary wateifowl cornmunities to be predicted. The factors that best describe waterfowl communities are estuary length, channel and shore widths, exposure to swell, sediment type, longitude and latitude. The implications for waterfowl of any habitat change that affects these variables are discussed. It is suggested that when human developments are being designed they should take these factors into account in an attempt to minimise their impact on waterfowl.