Surge prediction at Barrow-in-Furness

Over a period of 18 months starting September 1985, simultaneous sea-level measurements have been taken in Barrow-in-Furness, at two locations to the north and south of Walney Island, at Roa Island, and at an offshore position to the south of Walney Island. Subsequently, statistical formulae have been evolved relating the surge at each observational point to the surge at Heysham and to local meteorological variables. Using the forecast surge at Heysham, obtained from the Continental Shelf Model running in real time, a regression model has been developed to predict surges in the vicinity of Barrow-in-Furness. Emphasis has been placed on the correct reproduction of negative surges. Experimental runs have been carried out with a regional model of Morecambe Bay to assess the influence of local winds on sea level differences within the Bay.