How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions

Williams, Richard G.; Goodwin, Philip; Ridgwell, Andy; Woodworth, Philip L.

How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions

Williams, Richard G.; Goodwin, Philip; Ridgwell, Andy; Woodworth, Philip L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6681-239X. 2012 How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (19). L19715. 10.1029/2012GL052771

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052771

Abstract/Summary

Surface warming and steric sea level rise over the global ocean nearly linearly increase with cumulative carbon emissions for an atmosphere-ocean equilibrium, reached many centuries after emissions cease. Surface warming increases with cumulative emissions with a proportionality factor, ΔTsurface:2×CO2/(IB ln 2), ranging from 0.8 to 1.9 K (1000 PgC)−1 for surface air temperature, depending on the climate sensitivity ΔTsurface:2×CO2 and the buffered carbon inventory IB. Steric sea level rise similarly increases with cumulative emissions and depends on the climate sensitivity of the bulk ocean, ranging from 0.4 K to 2.7 K; a factor 0.4 ± 0.2 smaller than that for surface temperature based on diagnostics of two Earth System models. The implied steric sea level rise ranges from 0.7 m to 5 m for a cumulative emission of 5000 PgC, approached perhaps 500 years or more after emissions cease.

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

10.1029/2012GL052771

Programmes:

NOC Programmes

ISSN:

0094-8276

Additional Keywords:

anthropogenic warming, carbon emissions, ocean warming, surface warming

NORA Subject Terms:

Marine Sciences