Reference observations for validating and tuning operating models for krill fishery management in Area 48

Hill, Simeon ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1441-8769; Hinke, Jefferson; Plagányi, Eva; Watters, George. 2008 Reference observations for validating and tuning operating models for krill fishery management in Area 48. CCAMLR. (Unpublished)

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Abstract/Summary

In 2007 WG-SAM defined a set of reference observations for validating and tuning proposed models to evaluate krill catch allocation options for Area 48 (the SAM calendar). The observations, which were endorsed by WG-EMM, were largely qualitative and relative. We used available data to translate these observations into numerical terms (the numerical calendar). We provide spatially-resolved reference points for the density of krill, and the abundance of “generic” seals, penguins and whales in 1970, 2007 and at least one intermediate year. Recent work on baleen whales indicates a higher growth rate than that suggested by WG-SAM, so the numerical calendar for this taxon deviates from the SAM calendar. The numerical calendar is a partly subjective interpretation of limited data and should not be considered a definitive description of the relevant dynamics. This exercise resulted in population sizes for several taxa that are adjusted for asynchronous observations and are potentially more suitable for initialising models than those published in Hill et al (2007).

Item Type:	Publication - Report (Working Paper)
Programmes:	BAS Programmes > Global Science in the Antarctic Context (2005-2009) > DISCOVERY 2010 - Integrating Southern Ocean Ecosystems into the Earth System
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	This paper is cited in descriptions of two krill-predator-fishery models: SMOM (Plagányi, É. E., and D. S. Butterworth. 2012. The Scotia Sea krill fishery and its possible impacts on dependent predators – modelling localized depletion of prey. Ecological Applications: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/11-0441.1) and Foosa (Watters, G.W., S.L. Hill, J.T. Hinke, J. Matthews and K. Reid. Submitted 2012. Decision making in the face of complexity and uncertainty: Evaluating management options for a Southern Ocean krill fishery with an ecosystem dynamics model.) The paper was originally prepared for the CCAMLR working group referred it to WG-EMM. Another working group, WG-SAM, had previously articulated a qualitative representation of ecosystem dynamics for the period 1970 to 2007. This paper translates that into a quantitative (but still highly uncertain) representation.
Date made live:	12 Feb 2013 08:37 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/17561

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