Integrated modelling within the Thames Basin : examples of BGS work

The effects of climate change and the human exploitation of our environment pose a serious threat to the sustainability of our water resources, both for ‘ecosystem services’ and human consumption. To make robust projections of the future impact of these pressures they must be considered in combination. This necessitates the simulation of the feedbacks and complex interactions between different parts of the water cycle, and the development of integrated environmental models. Examples of the construction of such integrated models are presented in this poster, which focuses on the simulation of combined fluvial and groundwater flood events in both rural and urban settings: the Berkshire Downs and the city of Oxford. The NERC-funded ‘Changing Water Cycle’ project, which started in January 2011, is also described. This project will investigate environmental change within the Thames Basin. Finally, an approach to modelling the multi-aquifer groundwater system within the whole Thames Basin is outlined.