Van Oijen, Marcel; Thomson, Amanda 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7306-4545.
2010
Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry
models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry.
Climatic Change, 103.
55-67.
10.1007/s10584-010-9917-3
Abstract
The Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United Kingdom currently uses a simple carbon-flow model, CFLOW, to calculate the emissions and removals associated with forest planting since 1920. Here, we aim to determine whether a
more complex process-basedmodel, the BASic FORest (BASFOR) simulator, could be used instead of CFLOW. The use of a more complex approach allows spatial heterogeneity in soils and weather to be accounted for, but places extra demands on
uncertainty quantification. We show how Bayesian methods can be used to address this problem.
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