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Items where NERC Author is "Kay, Alison"

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Parry, Simon; Mackay, Jonathan D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4373-5747; Chitson, Thomas; Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310; Magee, Eugene; Tanguy, Maliko ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1516-6834; Bell, Victoria A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Facer-Childs, Katie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1060-9103; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Lane, Rosanna ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4176-9214; Moore, Robert J.; Turner, Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8358-8775; Wallbank, John ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6313-0836. 2024 Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28 (3). 417-440. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024

Sayers, Paul; Griffin, Adam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8645-4561; Lowe, Jason; Bernie, Dan; Carr, Sam; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Stewart, Lisa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4246-6645. 2023 Beyond the local climate change uplift – the importance of changes in spatial structure on future fluvial flood risk in Great Britain. Natural Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06350-x

Kay, A.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Brown, M.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1127-0279. 2023 Using sub-daily precipitation for grid-based hydrological modelling across Great Britain: assessing model performance and comparing flood impacts under climate change. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 50, 101588. 17, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101588

Robinson, Emma L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3746-4517; Brown, Matthew J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1127-0279; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Lane, Rosanna A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4176-9214; Chapman, Rhian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3842-1420; Bell, Victoria A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Blyth, Eleanor M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-238X. 2023 Hydro-PE: gridded datasets of historical and future Penman-Monteith potential evaporation for the United Kingdom. Earth System Science Data, 15 (10). 4433-4461. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4433-2023

Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Bell, Vicky A.; Davies, Helen N.; Lane, Rosanna A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4176-9214; Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115. 2023 The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates. Earth System Science Data, 15 (6). 2533-2546. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023

Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310; Mackay, Jonathan D.; Ascott, Matthew; Bell, Victoria A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Chitson, Thomas; Cole, Steven ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-8687; Counsell, Christian; Durant, Mason; Jackson, Christopher R.; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Lane, Rosanna A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4176-9214; Mansour, Majdi; Moore, Robert; Parry, Simon; Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Simpson, Michael; Facer-Childs, Katie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1060-9103; Turner, Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8358-8775; Wallbank, John R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6313-0836; Wells, Steven; Wilcox, Amy. 2023 The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18. Earth System Science Data, 15 (6). 2391-2415. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023

Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Sayers, Paul B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2160-1959. 2023 Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 16 (1), e12863. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12863

Bloomfield, H.C.; Hillier, J.; Griffin, A.; Kay, A.L.; Shaffrey, L.C.; Pianosi, F.; James, R.; Kumar, D.; Champion, A.; Bates, P.D.. 2023 Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales. Weather and Climate Extremes, 39, 100550. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100550

Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Coulson, James. 2023 Spatial downscaling of precipitation for hydrological modelling: assessing a simple method and its application under climate change in Britain. Hydrological Processes, 37 (2), e14823. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14823

Griffin, Adam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8645-4561; Kay, Alison; Stewart, Elizabeth; Sayers, Paul. 2022 Spatially coherent statistical simulation of widespread flooding events under climate change. Hydrology Research, 53 (11). 1428-1440. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.069

Griffin, Adam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8645-4561; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Stewart, Lisa; Spencer, Peter. 2022 Climate change allowances, non‐stationarity and flood frequency analyses. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 15 (3), e12783. 12, pp. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12783

Griffin, Adam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8645-4561; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Sayers, Paul; Bell, Victoria ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Stewart, Elizabeth; Carr, Sam. 2022 Widespread flooding dynamics changing under climate change: characterising floods using UKCP18. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, hess-2022-243. 18, pp. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-243 (Submitted)

Kay, Alison. 2022 Differences in hydrological impacts using regional climate model and nested convection-permitting model data. Climatic Change, 173 (1-2), 11. 19, pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03405-z

Kay, A.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Lane, R.A.; Bell, V.A.. 2022 Grid-based simulation of soil moisture in the UK: future changes in extremes and wetting and drying dates. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (7), 074029. 12, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7a4e

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8972-953X; Bell, Victoria A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Brown, Matthew J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1127-0279; Davies, Helen N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7783-4853; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Sefton, Catherine ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8157-0368. 2022 Use of abstraction and discharge data to improve the performance of a national‐scale hydrological model. Water Resources Research, 58 (1), e2021WR029787. 24, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR029787

Kay, A.L.; Davies, H.N.; Lane, R.A.; Rudd, A.C.; Bell, V.A.. 2021 Grid-based simulation of river flows in Northern Ireland: model performance and future flow changes. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 38, 100967. 13, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100967

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8972-953X; Bell, Victoria A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Davies, Helen N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7783-4853; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756. 2021 How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa? Climatic Change, 169 (3-4), 21. 27, pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03256-0

Arnell, Nigel W.; Freeman, Anna; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Lowe, Jason A.. 2021 Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming. Environmental Research Communications, 3 (9), 095005. 24, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac24c0

Lane, Rosanna A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4176-9214; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756. 2021 Climate change impact on the magnitude and timing of hydrological extremes across Great Britain. Frontiers in Water, 3, 684982. 14, pp. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.684982

Kay, A.L.; Griffin, A.; Rudd, A.C.; Chapman, R.M.; Bell, V.A.; Arnell, N.W.. 2021 Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain. Advances in Water Resources, 151, 103909. 12, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103909

Kay, A.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756. 2021 Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: baseline performance and future seasonal changes. Hydrological Processes, 35 (4), e14137. 10, pp. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14137

Arnell, N.W.; Kay, A.L.; Freeman, A.; Rudd, A.C.; Lowe, J.A.. 2021 Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators. Climate Risk Management, 31, 100265. 25, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100265

Kay, A.L.; Rudd, A.C.; Fry, M.; Nash, G.; Allen, S.. 2021 Climate change impacts on peak river flows: combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections. Climate Risk Management, 31, 100263. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263

Kay, Alison Lindsey ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Watts, Glenn; Wells, Steven C.; Allen, Stuart. 2020 The impact of climate change on U.K. river flows: a preliminary comparison of two generations of probabilistic climate projections. Hydrological Processes, 34 (4). 1081-1088. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13644

Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Kay, Alison L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Wells, Steven C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1723-5987; Aldridge, Timothy; Cole, Steven J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-8687; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Stewart, Elizabeth J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4246-6645. 2020 Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact. Hydrological Processes, 34 (1). 139-149. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13572

Rudd, Alison C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Kay, A.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Bell, V.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650. 2019 National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics. Climatic Change, 156 (3). 323-340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02528-0

Rudd, Alison; Kay, Alison; Wells, Steven; Cole, Steven; Stewart, Elizabeth; Aldridge, Timothy; Kendon, Elizabeth. 2019 Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 21, EGU2019-5780. 1, pp.

Kay, A.L.; Old, G.H.; Bell, V.A.; Davies, H.N.; Trill, E.J.. 2019 An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (4), 044017. 9, pp. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafdbe

Kay, Alison L.; Booth, Naomi; Lamb, Rob; Raven, Emma; Schaller, Nathalie; Sparrow, Sarah. 2018 Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: winter 2013/14 in Great Britain. International Journal of Climatology, 38 (14). 5205-5219. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5721

Bell, Victoria A.; Kay, Alison L.; Rudd, Alison C.; Davies, Helen N.. 2018 The MaRIUS-G2G datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates of flow and soil moisture for Great Britain using observed and climate model driving data. Geoscience Data Journal, 5 (2). 63-72. https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.55

Kay, A.L.; Bell, V.A.; Guillod, B.P.; Jones, R.G.; Rudd, A.C.. 2018 National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes. Climatic Change, 147 (3-4). 585-599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2145-y

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C.H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.. 2018 A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22 (1). 611-634. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-611-2018

Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen N.; Kay, Alison L.; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam A.. 2017 A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain [in special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting] Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21 (9). 4681-4691. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017

Rudd, Alison C.; Bell, Victoria A.; Kay, Alison L.. 2017 National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891–2015). Journal of Hydrology, 550. 368-385. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.018

Reynard, Nicholas S.; Kay, Alison L.; Anderson, Molly; Donovan, Bill; Duckworth, Caroline. 2017 The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England. Progress in Physical Geography, 41 (2). 222-237. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133317702566

Kay, Alison L.. 2016 A review of snow in Britain: the historical picture and future projections. Progress in Physical Geography, 40 (5). 676-698. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133316650617

Schaller, Nathalie; Kay, Alison L.; Lamb, Rob; Massey, Neil R.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E.L.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal; Ashpole, Ian; Bowery, Andy; Crooks, Susan M.; Haustein, Karsten; Huntingford, Chris; Ingram, William J.; Jones, Richard G.; Legg, Tim; Miller, Jonathan; Skeggs, Jessica; Wallom, David; Weisheimer, Antje; Wilson, Simon; Stott, Peter A.; Allen, Myles R.. 2016 Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6 (6). 627-634. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2927

Rudd, Alison C.; Kay, Alison L.. 2016 Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: estimation of potential evaporation. Hydrology Research, 47 (3). 660-670. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2015.028

Bell, V.A.; Kay, A.L.; Davies, H.N.; Jones, R.G.. 2016 An assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on snow and peak river flows across Britain. Climatic Change, 136 (3). 539-553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1637-x

Rudd, Alison; Bell, Victoria; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. 2016 A long-term national-scale hydrological simulation of river flows across Great Britain. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 18, EGU2016-4305. 1, pp.

Kay, A.L.; Rudd, A.C.; Davies, H.N.; Kendon, E.J.; Jones, R.G.. 2015 Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling: baseline performance and future flood changes. Climatic Change, 133 (2). 193-208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1455-6

Crooks, S.M.; Kay, A.L.. 2015 Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response? Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 4 (B). 172-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.05.014

Watts, Glenn; Battarbee, Richard W.; Bloomfield, John P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5730-1723; Crossman, Jill; Daccache, Andre; Durance, Isabelle; Elliott, J. Alex; Garner, Grace; Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310; Hannah, David M.; Hess, Tim; Jackson, Christopher R.; Kay, Alison L.; Kernan, Martin; Knox, Jerry; Mackay, Jonathan; Monteith, Don T.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Rance, Jemima; Stuart, Marianne E.; Wade, Andrew J.; Wade, Steven D.; Weatherhead, Keith; Whitehead, Paul G.; Wilby, Robert L.. 2015 Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects. Progress in Physical Geography, 39 (1). 6-28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133314542957

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.. 2014 An investigation of the effect of transient climate change on snowmelt, flood frequency and timing in northern Britain. International Journal of Climatology, 34 (12). 3368-3381. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3913

Huntingford, Chris; Marsh, Terry; Scaife, Adam A.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310; Kay, Alison L.; Lockwood, Mike; Prudhomme, Christel; Reynard, Nick S.; Parry, Simon; Lowe, Jason A.; Screen, James A.; Ward, Helen C.; Roberts, Malcolm; Stott, Peter A.; Bell, Vicky A.; Bailey, Mark; Jenkins, Alan; Legg, Tim; Otto, Friederike E.L.; Massey, Neil; Schaller, Nathalie; Slingo, Julia; Allen, Myles R.. 2014 Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change, 4 (9). 769-777. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2314

Crooks, Susan M.; Kay, Alison L.; Davies, Helen N.; Bell, Victoria A.. 2014 From catchment to national scale rainfall-runoff modelling: demonstration of a hydrological modelling framework [in special issue: Hydrological modeling: beyond runoff calibration] Hydrology, 1 (1). 63-88. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology1010063

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Prudhomme, C.; Reynard, N.S.. 2014 Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces I: England and Wales. Regional Environmental Change, 14 (3). 1215-1227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0563-y

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Reynard, N.S.. 2014 Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland. Regional Environmental Change, 14 (3). 1243-1255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0564-x

Kay, A.L.; Bell, V.A.; Blyth, E.M.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Reynard, N.S.. 2013 A hydrological perspective on evaporation: historical trends and future projections in Britain. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 4 (3). 193-208. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2013.014

Bell, V.A.; Davies, H.N.; Kay, A.L.; Marsh, T.J.; Brookshaw, A.; Jenkins, A.. 2013 Developing a large-scale water-balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain. Hydrological Processes, 27 (20). 3003-3012. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9863

Prudhomme, Christel; Crooks, Sue; Kay, Alison L.; Reynard, Nick. 2013 Climate change and river flooding. Part 1, Classifying the sensitivity of British catchments. Climatic Change, 119 (3-4). 933-948. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0748-x

Prudhomme, Christel; Kay, Alison L.; Crooks, Sue; Reynard, Nick. 2013 Climate change and river flooding. Part 2, Sensitivity characterisation for British catchments and example vulnerability assessments. Climatic Change, 119 (3-4). 949-964. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0726-3

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Reynard, N.S.. 2013 Using response surfaces to estimate impacts of climate change on flood peaks: assessment of uncertainty. Hydrological Processes, 28 (20). 5273-5287. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10000

Kay, A.L.; Jones, R.G.. 2012 Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency. Climatic Change, 114 (2). 211-230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0395-z

Bell, V.A.; Kay, A.L.; Cole, S.J.; Jones, R.G.; Moore, R.J.; Reynard, N.S.. 2012 How might climate change affect river flows across the Thames Basin?: an area-wide analysis using the UKCP09 Regional Climate Model ensemble. Journal of Hydrology, 442-443. 89-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.001

Kay, A.L.; Jones, D.A.. 2012 Transient changes in flood frequency and timing in Britain under potential projections of climate change. International Journal of Climatology, 32 (4). 489-502. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2288

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Pall, P.; Stone, D.A.. 2011 Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: a catchment-based study. Journal of Hydrology, 406 (1-2). 97-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.006

Bell, Victoria A.; Gedney, Nicola; Kay, Alison L.; Smith, Roderick N.B.; Jones, Richard G.; Moore, Robert J. 2011 Estimating potential evaporation from vegetated surfaces for water management impact assessments using climate model output. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12 (5). 1127-1136. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1379.1

Oudin, Ludovic; Kay, Alison; Andreassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles. 2010 Are seemingly physically similar catchments truly hydrologically similar? Water Resources Research, 46, W11558. 15, pp. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008887

Prudhomme, C.; Wilby, R.L.; Crooks, S.; Kay, A.L.; Reynard, N.S.. 2010 Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk. Journal of Hydrology, 390. 198-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.043

Bell, V.A.; Kay, A.L.; Jones, R.G.; Moore, R.J.; Reynard, N.S.. 2009 Use of soil data in a grid-based hydrological model to estimate spatial variation in changing flood risk across the UK. Journal of Hydrology, 377 (3-4). 335-350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.031

Kay, A. L.; Davies, H. N.; Bell, V. A.; Jones, R. G. 2009 Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Climatic Change, 92 (1-2). 41-63. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9471-4

Kay, A. L.; Davies, H. N.. 2008 Calculating potential evaporation from climate model data: a source of uncertainty for hydrological climate change impacts. Journal of Hydrology, 358 (3-4). 221-239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.06.005

Bell, V.A.; Kay, A.L.; Jones, R.G.; Moore, R.J.. 2007 Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11 (1). 532-549.

Jones, David A.; Kay, Alison L.. 2007 Uncertainty analysis for estimating flood frequencies for ungauged catchments using rainfall-runoff models. Advances in Water Resources, 30 (5). 1190-1204. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2006.10.009

Bell, V. A.; Kay, A. L.; Jones, R. G.; Moore, R. J.. 2007 Use of a grid-based hydrological model and regional climate model outputs to assess changing flood risk. International Journal of Climatology, 27 (12). 1657-1671. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1539

Kay, A. L.; Jones, D. A.; Crooks, S. M.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Fung, C. F.. 2007 An investigation of site-similarity approaches to generalisation of a rainfall–runoff model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11 (1). 500-515.

Kay, Alison L.; Reynard, Nicholas S.; Jones, Richard G.. 2006 RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. l. Method and validation. Journal of Hydrology, 318. 151-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.012

Kay, Alison L.; Jones, Richard G.; Reynard, Nicholas S.. 2006 RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. ll. Climate change results. Journal of Hydrology, 318. 163-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.013

Kay, A. L.; Jones, D. A.; Crooks, S. M.; Calver, A.; Reynard, N. S.. 2006 A comparison of three approaches to spatial generalisation of rainfall-runoff models. Hydrological Processes, 20. 3953-3973. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6550

Publication - Book Section

Harding, Richard; Reynard, Nick; Kay, Alison. 2014 Current understanding of climate change impacts on extreme events. In: Quevauviller, Philippe, (ed.) Hydrometeorological hazards: interfacing science and policy. Chchester, Wiley Blackwell, 27-47. (Hydrometeorological extreme events).

Reynard, N. S.; Kay, A. L.; Crooks, S. M.. 2007 Flood risk in the UK: current and future. In: Brebbia, C. A.; Katsifarakis, K. L., (eds.) River Basin Management IV (River Basin Management 2007). WIT Press, 299-311. (Ecology and the Environment, 104).

Publication - Conference Item

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8972-953X; Bell, Vicky ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Davies, Helen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7783-4853; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756. 2019 How might river flows in West Africa change in the future? In: African Climate Risks Conference 2019, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 7-9 Oct 2019. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, SouthSouthNorth, Cape Town, South Africa, 94-96.

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam; Bell, Vicky; Davies, Helen; Houghton-Carr, Helen; Kay, Alison; Miller, James; Rickards, Nathan; Bologo-Traore, Maimouna; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Gnenakantanhan, Coulibaly; Tazen, Fowe; Traore, Karim. 2017 Hydrological research for AMMA-2050. [Poster] In: Future Climate for Africa Mid-Term Conference 2017, Cape Town, South Africa, 4–7 Sept 2017. (Unpublished)

Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Crooks, Sue; Bell, Vicky. 2014 Use of very high resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling in southern Britain. [Poster] In: 12th British Hydrological Society National Symposium, Birmingham, UK, 2-4 Sept 2014. (Unpublished)

Prudhomme, Christel; Wilby, Rob; Crooks, Sue; Kay, Alison; Reynard, Nick. 2010 Regionalisation of the impact of climate change on flood flows using a scenario-neutral approach: application in Great Britain. In: BHS 3rd International Symposium - Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment, Newcastle, 19-23 July 2010.

Reynard, N.S.; Crooks, S.M.; Kay, A.L.; Prudhomme, C.; Donovan, B.; Hardy, K.; Wilby, R.L.. 2009 Regionalisation of climate impacts on flood flows to support the development of climate change guidance for Flood Management. In: FCRM09 44th Annual Defra Flood & Coastal Risk Management Conference, Telford, 30 June - 02 July 2009.

Reynard, Nick; Crooks, Sue; Wilby, Rob; Kay, Alison. 2004 Climate change and flood frequency in the UK. In: 39th Defra Flood and Coastal Flood management Conference, York, June 2004. Defra, London, UK.

Reynard, Nicholas; Brown, S; Crooks, Susan; Kay, Alison. 2003 Climate change and flood frequency in the UK: An appraisal of the 20% allowance in the light of the UKCIP02 scenarios. In: 38th Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference 2003, Keele University, 16-18 July 2003. Defra, London, UK.

Publication - Report

Cooper, Elizabeth; Martinez-de la Torre, Alberto; Marthews, Toby; Ellis, Rich; Kay, Alison; Wiggins, Matthew; Dadson, Simon; Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam; Reynard, Nick; Clark, Douglas. 2022 Improved hydrology for regional environmental prediction. Wallingford, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 39pp. (Unpublished)

Kay, Alison L.; Spencer, Marcia; Bell, Victoria A.. 2022 UK-SCAPE WP2.2: Water Futures. Stakeholder questionnaire results. Wallingford, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 14pp. (Unpublished)

Sayers, P.B.; Horritt, M.S.; Carr, S.; Kay, A.; Mauz, J.; Lamb, R.; Penning-Rowsell, E.. 2020 Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3): future flood risk. Main report - Final report prepared for the Committee on Climate Change, UK. London, Committee on Climate Change, 102pp. (UKCEH Project no. C07063)

Rudd, A.C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5996-6115; Kay, A.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Facer-Childs, K.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1060-9103; Dadson, S.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6144-4639. 2020 Framework for setting up a Hydro-JULES perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE). Wallingford, UK, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 10pp. (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.; Stewart, E.J.; Davies, H.N.; Rudd, A.C.; Vesuviano, G.; Sayers, Paul. 2020 CCRA3 flooding projections, task 2a: high resolution climate change projections — fluvial. Technical note. Wallingford, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 31pp. (UKCEH ref. NEC07063 / Issue number 1.2) (Unpublished)

Eory, Vera; Bapasola, Ayesha; Bealey, Bill; Boyd, Iain; Campbell, Jim; Cole, Lorna; Glenk, Klaus; Allen, Grant; Kay, Alison; MacLeod, Michael; Moran, Dominic; Moxley, Janet; Rees, Bob; Sherrington, Chris; Topp, Kairsty; Watson, Christine. 2017 Evidence review of the potential wider impacts of climate change mitigation options: agriculture, forestry, land use and waste sectors. Edinburgh, Scottish Government, 154pp. (CEH Project no. C06049)

Kay, Alison L.. 2016 Snow in Britain: the historical picture and future projections. Wallingford, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 24pp. (CEH Project no. C05657)

Wade, Steven; Sanderson, Michael; Golding, Nicola; Lowe, Jason; Betts, Richard; Reynard, Nick; Kay, Alison; Stewart, Lisa; Prudhomme, Christel; Shaffrey, Len; Lloyd-Hughes, Ben; Harvey, Ben. 2015 Developing H++ climate change scenarios for heat waves, droughts, floods, windstorms and cold snaps. London, Committee on Climate Change, 145pp.

Cole, S.J.; Moore, R.J.; Robson, A.J.; Mattingley, P.S.; Black, K.B.; Kay, A.L.. 2013 Evaluating G2G for use in Rapid Response Catchments: Final Report. Bristol, UK, Environment Agency, 120pp. (Report SC110003/R2, CEH Project no. C02329)

Watts, Glenn; Batterbee, Rick; Bloomfield, John P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5730-1723; Crossman, Jill; Daccache, Andre; Durance, Isabelle; Elliot, John; Garner, Grace; Hannaford, Jamie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310; Hannah, David M.; Hess, Tim; Jackson, Christopher R.; Kay, Alison L.; Kernan, Martin; Knox, Jerry; Mackay, Jonathan; Monteith, Don T.; Ormerod, Steve; Rance, Jemima; Stuart, Marianne E.; Wade, Andrew J.; Wade, Steven d.; Weatherhead, Keith; Whitehead, Paul G.; Wilby, Robert L.. 2013 Climate change and water in the UK : past changes and future prospects: a climate change report card for water: Working technical paper. LWEC Partnership, 30pp. (A climate change report card for water, no.11)

Kay, A.L.; Bell, V.A.; Blyth, E.M.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Reynard, N.S.. 2012 A hydrological perspective on UK evaporation: historical trends and future projections. Wallingford, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 28pp. (Unpublished)

Acreman, M.C.; Blake, J.R.; Mountford, O.; Stratford, C.; Prudhomme, C.; Kay, A.; Bell, V.; Gowing, D.; Rothero, E.; Thompson, J.; Hughes, A.; Barkwith, A.; van de Noort, R.. 2011 Guidance on using wetland sensitivity to climate change tool-kit. A contribution to the Wetland Vision Partnership. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 58pp. (CEH Project Number: C03807) (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Davies, H.N.; Reynard, N.S.. 2011 An assessment of the vulnerability of Scotland’s river catchments and coasts to the impacts of climate change: Work Package 1 Report. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. (CEH Project Number: C04323) (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.; Reynard, N.S.; Lamb, R.. 2011 Translating UKCP09: FCERM-specific projections. Draft. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 39pp. (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.; Davies, H.N.; Prudhomme, C.; Reynard, N.S.. 2011 Practicalities for implementing regionalised allowances for climate change on flood flows. Final Technical Report – Project FD2648. Wallingford, NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 209pp. (CEH Project Number: C03821) (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.. 2011 An assessment of the vulnerability of Scotland’s river catchments and coasts to the impacts of climate change: Work Package 2 Report. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. (CEH Project Number: C04323) (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.; Davies, H.N.; Prudhomme, C.; Reynard, N.S.. 2010 Practicalities for implementing regionalised allowances for climate change on flood flows: initial results. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. (Unpublished)

Reynard, N.S.; Crooks, S.M.; Kay, A.L.; Prudhomme, C.. 2010 Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows. Defra, 113pp. (CEH Project Number: C03037, R&D Technical Report FD2020/TR)

Crooks, S.M.; Kay, A.L.; Reynard, N.S.. 2010 Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: hydrological models, catchments and calibration. Milestone report 1. Defra, 59pp. (CEH Project Number: C03037, R&D Milestone Report FD2020/MR1)

Prudhomme, C.; Crooks, S.; Kay, A.L.. 2009 Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: Identification of flood response types for Britain - Milestone report 3. Revised November 2009. London, Defra, 47pp. (CEH Project Number: C03037, R&D Milestone Report FD2020/MR3)

Prudhomme, C.; Crooks, S.; Kay, A.L.. 2009 Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: regionalising the flood response types in Britain. Milestone report 4. Revised November 2009. Defra, 48pp. (CEH Project Number: C03037, R&D Milestone Report FD2020/MR4)

Kay, A.L.; Crooks, S.M.; Prudhomme, C.. 2009 Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: uncertainty analysis. Milestone report 5. Revised November 2009. Defra, 71pp. (CEH Project Number: C03037, R&D Milestone Report FD2020/MR5)

Kay, A. L.; Bell, V. A.; Lowe, J. A.. 2008 Area-wide river flow modelling for the Thames Estuary 2100 project: Climate change impacts on flood frequency. Wallingford, NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 41pp. (CEH Project Number: C03253)

Kay, A. L.; Reynard, N. S.; Crooks, S. M.. 2006 Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows: data. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. (CEH: Project Report Number C03037) (Unpublished)

Kay, A. L.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.. 2006 Model quality and uncertainty for climate change impacts. NERC/Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. (CEH: Project Report Number C02002) (Unpublished)

Jones, R. G.; Bell, V. A.; Kay, A. L.; Dadson, S. J.; Davies, H. N.. 2006 Report describing the performance of the improved procedure using MOSES 2 to predict river flows. Summary analysis of the hydrological drivers of recent flooding events in the UK. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, 54pp. (CEH: Project Report Number C02002) (Unpublished)

Kay, A. L.; Bell, V. A.; Davies, H. N.. 2006 Report on an initial exploration of effects of sources of uncertainty in projected future climate change on changes in flood frequency in the UK. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. (CEH: Project Report Number C02002) (Unpublished)

Kay, A.L.. 2006 Catchment modelling with data from an RCM driven by ERA-40 boundary conditions. NERC/Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, 27pp. (CEH: Project Report Number C02002) (Unpublished)

Kay, A. L.; Reynard, N. S.; Davies, H. N.; Crooks, S. M.. 2006 Impact of climate change on the flows of the Stour at Lamarsh. NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 12pp. (CEH Project Number: C03139) (Unpublished)

Reynard, N. S.; Crooks, S. M.; Kay, A. L.. 2005 Impact of climate change on flood flows in river catchments - final report. Bristol, Environment Agency, 65pp. (CEH Project Number: C01967, R&D Technical Report W5-032/TR) (Unpublished)

Output (Electronic)

Mansour, Majdi ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3058-8864; Mackay, Jonathan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4373-5747; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Lane, Rosanna ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4176-9214. Distributed potential recharge projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) project. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre 29 September 2023, https://doi.org/10.5285/b14839e5-03e0-43ff-9382-1be2daf3baba [Output (Electronic)]

Bell, Vicky; Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of daily mean river flow for gauged catchments in Great Britain (1891 to 2015): observed driving data [MaRIUS-G2G-Oudin-daily]. NERC EIDC March 2018, https://doi.org/10.5285/0ceb4f85-0bbf-49f0-ab70-cfc137ab7d4d [Output (Electronic)]

Bell, Vicky; Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of daily mean river flow for gauged catchments in Great Britain (1960 to 2015): observed driving data [MaRIUS-G2G-MORECS-daily]. NERC EIDC 9 March 2018, https://doi.org/10.5285/5f3c1a02-d5c4-4faa-9353-e8b68ce2ace2 [Output (Electronic)]

Bell, Vicky; Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of daily mean river flow for gauged catchments in Great Britain: weather@home2 (climate model) driving data [MaRIUS-G2G-WAH2-daily]. NERC EIDC March 2018, https://doi.org/10.5285/f6cac471-7d92-4e6d-be8a-9f7887143058 [Output (Electronic)]

Bell, Vicky; Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of monthly mean flow and soil moisture for Great Britain (1891 to 2015): observed driving data [MaRIUS-G2G-Oudin-monthly]. NERC EIDC 9 March 2018, https://doi.org/10.5285/f52f012d-9f2e-42cc-b628-9cdea4fa3ba0 [Output (Electronic)]

Bell, Vicky; Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of monthly mean flow and soil moisture for Great Britain (1960 to 2015): observed driving data [MaRIUS-G2G-MORECS-monthly]. NERC EIDC 9 March 2018, https://doi.org/10.5285/e911196a-b371-47b1-968c-661eb600d83b [Output (Electronic)]

Bell, Vicky; Rudd, Ali; Kay, Alison; Davies, Helen. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of monthly mean flow and soil moisture for Great Britain: weather@home2 (climate model) driving data [MaRIUS-G2G-WAH2-monthly]. NERC EIDC March 2018, https://doi.org/10.5285/3b90962e-6fc8-4251-853e-b9683e37f790 [Output (Electronic)]

Kay, Alison; Rudd, Ali; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Bell, Vicky. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Great Britain driven by UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional (12km) data (1980 to 2080) v2. 2022, https://doi.org/10.5285/18be3704-0a6d-4917-aa2e-bf38927321c5 [Output (Electronic)]

Kay, Alison; Rudd, Ali; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Bell, Vicky. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Great Britain driven by observed data (1980 to 2011). 2021, 10.5285/2f835517-253e-4697-b774-ab6ff2c0d3da [Output (Electronic)]

Kay, Alison; Rudd, Ali; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Bell, Vicky. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Northern Ireland driven by UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional (12km) data (1980 to 2080) v2. 2022, https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/76057b0a-b18f-496f-891c-d5b22bd0b291 [Output (Electronic)]

Kay, Alison; Rudd, Ali; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Bell, Vicky. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of river flow for Northern Ireland driven by observed data (1980 to 2011). 2021, 10.5285/f5fc1041-e284-4763-b8b7-8643c319b2d0 [Output (Electronic)]

Kay, Alison; Rudd, Ali; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Bell, Vicky. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of soil moisture for Great Britain and Northern Ireland driven by UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) Regional (12km) data (1980 to 2080). 2022, https://doi.org/10.5285/f7142ced-f6ff-486b-af33-44fb8f763cde [Output (Electronic)]

Kay, Alison; Rudd, Ali; Davies, Helen; Lane, Rosanna; Bell, Vicky. Grid-to-Grid model estimates of soil moisture for Great Britain and Northern Ireland driven by observed data (1980 to 2011). 2021, https://doi.org/10.5285/c9a85f7c-45e2-4201-af82-4c833b3f2c5f [Output (Electronic)]

Rameshwaran, Ponnambalam; Bell, Vicky; Davies, Helen; Kay, Alison. Historical (1950-2005) and projected (2006-2099) hydrological model (HMF-WA) estimates of monthly mean and annual maximum river flows across West Africa driven by CMIP5 projected climate data. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre 14 October 2021, https://doi.org/10.5285/6429828f-6a06-4d2d-8f50-4910b18f7ff4 [Output (Electronic)]

Guillod, Benoit; Jones, Richard; Kay, Alison; Massey, Neil; Sparrow, Sarah; Wallom, David; Wilson, S. Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity (MaRIUS) project: Large set of potential past and future climate time series for the UK from the weather@home2 model. September 2017, doi:10.5285/0cea8d7aca57427fae92241348ae9b03 [Output (Electronic)]

Brown, Matthew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1127-0279; Robinson, Emma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3746-4517; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Chapman, Rhian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3842-1420; Bell, Vicky ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Blyth, Eleanor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-238X. Potential evapotranspiration derived from HadUK-Grid 1km gridded climate observations 1969-2021 (Hydro-PE HadUK-Grid). 10 August 2022, https://doi.org/10.5285/9275ab7e-6e93-42bc-8e72-59c98d409deb [Output (Electronic)]

Brown, Matthew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1127-0279; Robinson, Emma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3746-4517; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Chapman, Rhian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3842-1420; Bell, Vicky ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Blyth, Eleanor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-238X. Potential evapotranspiration derived from HadUK-Grid 1km gridded climate observations 1969-2022 (Hydro-PE HadUK-Grid). UKCEH, EIDC 23 November 2023, https://doi.org/10.5285/beb62085-ba81-480c-9ed0-2d31c27ff196 [Output (Electronic)]

Robinson, Emma ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3746-4517; Kay, Alison ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5526-1756; Brown, Matthew ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1127-0279; Chapman, Rhian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3842-1420; Bell, Vicky ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0792-5650; Blyth, Eleanor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5052-238X. Potential evapotranspiration derived from the UK Climate Projections 2018 Regional Climate Model ensemble 1980-2080 (Hydro-PE UKCP18 RCM). 11 August 2021, https://doi.org/10.5285/eb5d9dc4-13bb-44c7-9bf8-c5980fcf52a4 [Output (Electronic)]

This list was generated on Tue Mar 19 06:05:12 2024 UTC.