Advancing phenology in Europe’s last lowland primeval forest: non-linear temperature response

Sparks, Tim H.; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Krawczyk, Marta; Tryjanowski, R.. 2009 Advancing phenology in Europe’s last lowland primeval forest: non-linear temperature response. Climate Research, 39 (3). 221-226. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00812

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Abstract/Summary

We analysed phenological observations of first flowering and peak flowering dates of 7 species of woodland herbs in the Białowieża National Park (Poland), Europe’s last remaining lowland primeval forest and a World Heritage Site, during 1964–2007. There was substantial evidence for an advance in both first and peak flowering dates and flowering was closely related to temperature, which had risen substantially in this area. Similar advances have been reported from elsewhere, but typically from human-modified habitats. A comparison with contemporary data from the UK suggests that flowering was both later and less responsive in Poland. Examination of the data from the 2 countries over a wide range of temperatures hints at possible non-linear temperature responses; thus estimates of phenological change from linear regression may seriously underestimate changes which may occur in Białowieża in the future.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00812
Programmes:	CEH Programmes pre-2009 publications > Biodiversity > CC01A Detection and Attribution of Change in UK and European Ecosystems > CC01.3 UK Phenology Network
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Pywell
ISSN:	0936-577X
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	The online version of this article is available with Open Access from the journal website: http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v39/n3/
Additional Keywords:	Flowering, Temperature response, Phenology, Poland, Primeval forest, Climate change
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences
Date made live:	22 Oct 2009 11:50 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/8388

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