Quantifying the fine scale (1km × 1km) exposure, dose and effects of ozone: Part 2 estimating yield losses for agricultural crops

In Britain wheat is an important crop accounting for 41% of the total cereal production. In this study ozone concentrations for 1989 estimated as described in Part 1 of the paper are integrated with the estimated wheat distribution to derive a detailed estimate of the impact of ozone on wheat yields at a fine spatial scale (1km × 1km). These data provide estimates for calculating regional and national yield losses. The methodology can be applied to other crop species. Recent research on a range of crops has established relationships between the economic yield loss for certain crops, including wheat, and ozone exposure. Exposure is described as the accumulated exposure above a threshold experienced during the daylight hours (AOT). Critical AOT values are derived from yield exposure relationships which show linear reductions of yield loss with increasing ozone concentrations. This study has made use of land cover data from remotely sensed imagery at 25m resolution and nationally collected agricultural statistics for counties. These data were combined using an areal interpolation technique to provide more spatially articulate estimates of the location and intensity of wheat production. The results demonstrate the economic importance of ozone as a pollutant. Wheat yield losses attributed to ozone vary between different parts of the country but, for years when ozone levels are high, yield losses are likely to be significant in some areas.