The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands

Tigli, Maddalena; Bak, Mirjam P.; Janse, Jan H.; Strokal, Maryna; Janssen, Annette B.G.. 2024 The future of algal blooms in lakes globally is in our hands. Water Research, 122533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122533

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122533

Abstract/Summary

Lakes are fundamental to society and nature, yet they are currently exposed to excessive nutrients and climate change, resulting in algal blooms. In the future, this may change, but how and where still needs more scientific attention. Here, we explore future trends in algal blooms in lakes globally for >3,500 ‘representative lakes’ for the year 2050, considering the attribution of both nutrient and climate factors. We soft-coupled a process-based lake ecosystem model (PCLake+) with a watershed nutrient model (MARINA-Multi) to assess trends in algal blooms in terms of the Trophic State Index for chlorophyll-a (TSI-Chla). Globally between 2010 and 2050, we show a rising trend in algal blooms under fossil-fuelled development (TSI-Chla increase in 91% of lakes) and a declining trend under sustainable development (TSI-Chla decrease in 63% of lakes). These changes are significantly attributed to nutrients. While not always significant, climate change attributions point to being unfavourable for lakes in 2050, exacerbating lake water quality. Our study stresses prioritising responsible nutrient and climate management on policy agendas. This implies that the future of algal blooms in lakes is in our hands.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122533
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	0043-1354
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	algal blooms, lake water quality, scenario analysis, climate change, eutrophication, global assessment
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	08 Oct 2024 12:00 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/538186

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122533

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

0043-1354

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

algal blooms, lake water quality, scenario analysis, climate change, eutrophication, global assessment