Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections

Aitken, Gordon; Beevers, Lindsay; Parry, Simon ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7057-4195; Facer-Childs, Katie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1060-9103. 2023 Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections. Climatic Change, 176 (11), 153. 28, pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1

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Abstract/Summary

Floods are the largest natural disaster currently facing the UK, whilst the incidents of droughts have increased in recent years. Floods and droughts can have devastating consequences on society, resulting in significant financial damage to the economy. Climate models suggest that precipitation and temperature changes will exacerbate future hydrological extremes (i.e., floods and droughts). Such events are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future; thus to develop adaptation plans climate model projections feed hydrological models to provide future water resource projections. ‘eFLaG’ is one set of future river flow projections produced for the UK driven by UKCP18 climate projections from the UK Met Office. The UKCP18-derived eFLaG dataset provides state-of-the-art projections for a single GCM driven by RCP 8.5 across the entire UK. A QE-ANOVA approach has been used to partition contributing sources of uncertainty for two flow quantiles (Q5 high flows and Q95 low flows), at near and far future time scales, for each of the 186 GB catchments in the eFLaG dataset. Results suggest a larger hydrological model uncertainty associated with low flows and greater regional climate model uncertainty for high flows which remains stationary between flow indicators. Total uncertainty increases from near to far future and highly uncertain catchments have been identified with a high concentration in South-East England.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Water Resources (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	1573-1480
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	UKCP18, regional climate model, QE-ANOVA
NORA Subject Terms:	Hydrology Meteorology and Climatology Data and Information
Related URLs:	Dataset
Date made live:	15 Nov 2023 16:20 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/536227

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