On the Use of High‐Resolution and Deep‐Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short‐Term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations

Mancini, S.; Segou, M.; Werner, M.J.; Parsons, T.; Beroza, G.; Chiaraluce, L.. 2022 On the Use of High‐Resolution and Deep‐Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short‐Term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127 (11), e2022JB025202. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025202

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Abstract/Summary

Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences. Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in real time. Here, we explore whether and how enhanced seismic catalogs feeding into established short-term earthquake forecasting protocols may result in higher predictive skill. We consider three enhanced catalogs for the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence, featuring a bulk completeness lower by at least two magnitude units compared to the real-time catalog and an improved hypocentral resolution. We use them to inform a set of physical Coulomb Rate-and-State (CRS) and statistical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to forecast the space-time occurrence of M3+ events during the first 6 months of the sequence. We track model performance using standard likelihood-based metrics and compare their skill against the best-performing CRS and ETAS models among those developed with the real-time catalog. We find that while the incorporation of the triggering contributions from new small magnitude detections of the enhanced catalogs is beneficial for both types of forecasts, these models do not significantly outperform their respective near real-time benchmarks. To explore the reasons behind this result, we perform targeted sensitivity tests that show how (a) the typical spatial discretizations of forecast experiments (urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb55931:jgrb55931-math-00012 km) hamper the ability of models to capture highly localized secondary triggering patterns and (b) differences in earthquake parameters (i.e., magnitude and hypocenters) reported in different catalogs can affect forecast evaluation. These findings will contribute toward improving forecast model design and evaluation strategies for next-generation seismic catalogs. Key Points We compare retrospective forecast models informed by enhanced versus real-time earthquake catalogs for the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence To realize the benefits of high-resolution catalogs, models should integrate advanced experimental setups, like finer spatial grids Results stimulate further testing on the optimal design of next-generation forecast models based on enhanced seismic catalogs

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025202
ISSN:	2169-9313
Date made live:	15 Nov 2022 12:11 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/533549

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