Climate driven trends in London's urban heat island intensity reconstructed over 70 years using a generalized additive model

Bassett, R.; Janes-Bassett, V.; Phillipson, J.; Young, P.J.; Blair, G.S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6212-1906. 2021 Climate driven trends in London's urban heat island intensity reconstructed over 70 years using a generalized additive model. Urban Climate, 40, 100990. 12, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100990

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100990

Abstract/Summary

Long-term urban heat island (UHI) observations are uncommon and where available, are generally unable to distinguish changing climate drivers from urban expansion; neither driver is treated independently. We overcome this limitation using a generalized additive model to learn the variability in UHI intensity (UHII) at a central London weather station (St James's Park) over a 10-year observation period (2010–2019). We then use the model to reconstruct 70 years (1950–2019) of monthly night-time UHII variability using ERA5 reanalysis data both as a reference in UHII calculation and for the predictors. We find considerable variability both seasonally and annually within the UHII time series (monthly mean maximum UHIIs are 1.4–2.9 °C). Applying extreme value analysis to the time series we show that monthly mean maximum UHIIs are likely to exceed 2.75 °C once every 11 years. Considering that most studies observe or model UHIIs for less than a year, they will likely misrepresent this UHII variability. Nevertheless, despite moving to a warmer background climate, London's UHII has not significantly changed across the period of analysis (1950–2019). The data-driven methods we create in this study are easily transferable to other cities.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100990
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	2212-0955
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	climate, generalized additive model, GAM, extreme values, time series, urban heat island, UHI, variability
NORA Subject Terms:	Meteorology and Climatology
Date made live:	19 Oct 2021 10:52 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/531266

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100990

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

UKCEH Fellows

ISSN:

2212-0955

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

climate, generalized additive model, GAM, extreme values, time series, urban heat island, UHI, variability