Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography

Wu, Chao; Venevsky, Sergey; Sitch, Stephen; Mercado, Lina M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4069-0838; Huntingford, Chris ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-7770; Staver, A. Carla. 2021 Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography. One Earth, 4 (4). 517-530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002

Abstract/Summary

Wildfires influence terrestrial carbon cycling and represent a safety risk, and yet a process-based understanding of their frequency and spatial distributions remains elusive. We combine satellite-based observations with an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model to make regionally resolved global assessments of burned area (BA) responses to changing climate, derived from 34 Earth system models and human demographics for 1860–2100. Limited by climate and socioeconomics, recent BA has decreased, especially in central South America and mesic African savannas. However, future simulations predict increasing BA due to changing climate, rapid population density growth, and urbanization. BA increases are especially notable at high latitudes, due to accelerated warming, and over the tropics and subtropics, due to drying and human ignitions. Conversely, rapid urbanization also limits BA via enhanced fire suppression in the immediate vicinity of settlements, offsetting the potential for dramatic future increases, depending on warming extent. Our analysis provides further insight into regional and global BA trends, highlighting the importance of including human demographic change in models for wildfire under changing climate.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)
ISSN:	2590-3330
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	wildfire, burned area trends, drivers and limiting factors, climate change, human demography, urbanization, global fire model, dynamic global vegetation model, Earth system model
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	25 May 2021 16:34 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530387

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.002

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Hydro-climate Risks (Science Area 2017-)

ISSN:

2590-3330

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

wildfire, burned area trends, drivers and limiting factors, climate change, human demography, urbanization, global fire model, dynamic global vegetation model, Earth system model

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment

Date made live:

25 May 2021 16:34 +0 (UTC)

URI:

https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530387