Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty

Willcock, Simon; Hooftman, Danny A.P.; Blanchard, Ryan; Dawson, Terence P.; Hickler, Thomas; Lindeskog, Mats; Martinez-Lopez, Javier; Reyers, Belinda; Watts, Sophie M.; Eigenbrod, Felix; Bullock, James M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0529-4020. 2020 Ensembles of ecosystem service models can improve accuracy and indicate uncertainty. Science of the Total Environment, 747, 141006. 11, pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141006

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141006

Abstract/Summary

Many ecosystem services (ES) models exist to support sustainable development decisions. However, most ES studies use only a single modelling framework and, because of a lack of validation data, rarely assess model accuracy for the study area. In line with other research themes which have high model uncertainty, such as climate change, ensembles of ES models may better serve decision-makers by providing more robust and accurate estimates, as well as provide indications of uncertainty when validation data are not available. To illustrate the benefits of an ensemble approach, we highlight the variation between alternative models, demonstrating that there are large geographic regions where decisions based on individual models are not robust. We test if ensembles are more accurate by comparing the ensemble accuracy of multiple models for six ES against validation data across sub-Saharan Africa with the accuracy of individual models. We find that ensembles are better predictors of ES, being 5.0–6.1% more accurate than individual models. We also find that the uncertainty (i.e. variation among constituent models) of the model ensemble is negatively correlated with accuracy and so can be used as a proxy for accuracy when validation is not possible (e.g. in data-deficient areas or when developing scenarios). Since ensembles are more robust, accurate and convey uncertainty, we recommend that ensemble modelling should be more widely implemented within ES science to better support policy choices and implementation.

Item Type:	Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI):	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141006
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-) UKCEH Fellows
ISSN:	0048-9697
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	Africa, carbon, charcoal, firewood, grazing, model validation, natural capital, poverty alleviation, sustainable development, water
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	10 Aug 2020 14:34 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/528327

Item Type:

Publication - Article

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141006

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Biodiversity (Science Area 2017-)
UKCEH Fellows

ISSN:

0048-9697

Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:

Open Access paper - full text available via Official URL link.

Additional Keywords:

Africa, carbon, charcoal, firewood, grazing, model validation, natural capital, poverty alleviation, sustainable development, water