Probabilistic drought risk analysis for even-aged forests

Van Oijen, Marcel; Zavala, Miguel A.. 2019 Probabilistic drought risk analysis for even-aged forests. In: Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian; Russo, Simone, (eds.) Climate extremes and their implications for impact and risk assessment. Amsterdam, Elsevier, 159-176.

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Abstract/Summary

We analyse drought risks to tree growth in Europe, using observations from forest stands covering a wide range of climatic conditions in France, Germany, Denmark and Spain. The data consist of time series of tree stem diameter and basal area. We employ a recently developed method of probabilistic risk analysis that formally decomposes the risk as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability (R=p(H)*V). The method is extended here with equations that quantify the uncertainties of the three terms. The risk analysis shows that in many parts of Europe drought losses have been moderate. We discuss how future increases in drought-risk may be managed.

Item Type:	Publication - Book Section
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)
ISBN:	9780128148952
Additional Keywords:	decomposition of risk, ecosystem vulnerability, hazard probability, tree growth
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment
Date made live:	26 Nov 2019 14:33 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/526046

Item Type:

Publication - Book Section

UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:

Atmospheric Chemistry and Effects (Science Area 2017-)

ISBN:

9780128148952

Additional Keywords:

decomposition of risk, ecosystem vulnerability, hazard probability, tree growth

NORA Subject Terms:

Ecology and Environment

Date made live:

26 Nov 2019 14:33 +0 (UTC)