Projections of emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector to 2050

Thomson, Amanda ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7306-4545; Buys, Gwen; Moxley, Janet; Malcolm, Heath; Henshall, Paul; Broadmeadow, Mark. 2017 Projections of emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector to 2050. Edinburgh, NERC/Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 42pp. (CEH project no. C04637)

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Abstract/Summary

Summary for policy makers: • The UK reports projections for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector to inform policy concerning domestic and international climate change commitments. The full projections data are available on the NAEI website (http://naei.defra.gov.uk/reports/reports?report_id=927) • LULUCF activities can result in net annual emissions or removals of greenhouse gases, and changes in carbon stocks in the pools associated with LULUCF. This report provides projections at the UK and Devolved Administration (DA) level, with separate estimates for Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland, which are summed to give the UK totals. The results presented here are based on the reporting conventions of the UNFCCC. They are not presented as potential future accounted emissions and removals under the Kyoto Protocol which are calculated formally at the end of each commitment period. • LULUCF is divided into six land use types: Forest Land (4A), Cropland (4B), Grassland (4C), Wetlands (4D), Settlements (4E), Other Land (4F). Carbon stock changes from Harvested Wood Products are reported in an additional category, Harvested Wood Products (4G). The code refers to the IPCC (2006 Guidelines) inventory category of LULUCF. There is a separate inventory sector – not presented here – dedicated to other emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide, from agricultural activities. • Projections are made for net emissions and removals of greenhouse gases to 2050, arising from LULUCF activities reported in the latest (1990-2014) greenhouse gas inventory, for the DAs and the UK excluding Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies. • Five scenarios (Baseline 1, Baseline 2, Central, Low and Stretch) have been described. The scenarios were developed by BEIS, Defra and the Forestry Commission and have been updated in 2016 following discussions with all of the UK administrations. The scenarios take account of current land use policies and aspirations. The Baseline scenarios are based on climate change-related and forestry policies extant in July 2009. • The main results are: At a UK level, the LULUCF sector has been a net sink since 1990 and is predicted to remain so under all scenarios until at least 2050, although at a declining level from the mid-2020s onwards (depending on the scenario). At a DA level, England and Scotland remain net sinks under all scenarios Wales is a small net sink under the Stretch scenario, but will become an increasing net source under the other scenarios between 2034 and 2049. Northern Ireland is a small net source (except in 1998 and 1999) under the Baseline and Central scenarios, but will become a small net sink from the late 2030s onwards under the Stretch and Low scenarios. The LULUCF sector in the UK and in each of the DAs is dominated by CO2 emissions and removals, although N2O emissions also make a significant contribution. The Forest Land, Cropland and Grassland categories determine the trend in the UK and DAs. The main changes in the projections since the 1990-2013 projections are: Forestry - a methodological revision of the forest carbon accounting model CARBINE to assign carbon stock changes to the correct reporting year, and the inclusion of the National Forest Inventory data (including, for the first time, small woods between 0.1 and 0.5 hectares in size) increasing tree cover and forest carbon stocks (this differs from the submitted 1990-2014 inventory). Grassland - the revision of the emission factor used for grassland on drained organic soils has reduced the size of the grassland sink.

Item Type:	Publication - Report
UKCEH and CEH Sections/Science Areas:	Dise
Funders/Sponsors:	Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.:	Report and additional documents are freely available online via Official URL link.
Additional Keywords:	LULUCF, greenhouse gas, GHG emissions, inventory, projections, 2050
NORA Subject Terms:	Ecology and Environment Agriculture and Soil Science Atmospheric Sciences
Related URLs:	Project Website
Date made live:	24 Apr 2017 12:52 +0 (UTC)
URI:	https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/516820

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