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Potential for seasonal prediction of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26°N

Duchez, Aurélie ; Courtois, Peggy; Harris, Elizabeth; Josey, Simon; Kanzow, Torsten; Marsh, Robert; Smeed, David; Hirschi, Joël Jean-Marie. 2016 Potential for seasonal prediction of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26°N. Climate Dynamics, 46 (9). 3351-3370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1

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© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2015 This document is the author’s final manuscript version of the journal article, incorporating any revisions agreed during the peer review process. Some differences between this and the publisher’s version remain. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from this article. The final publication is available at link.springer.com
MOC_SST_review2.pdf - Accepted Version

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Abstract/Summary

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the meridional heat transported by the ocean. In this paper, the potential of using AMOC observations from the 26 ∘ N RAPID array to predict North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is investigated for the first time. Using spatial correlations and a composite method, the AMOC anomaly is used as a precursor of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The results show that the AMOC leads a dipolar SSTA with maximum correlations between 2 and 5 months. The physical mechanism explaining the link between AMOC and SSTA is described as a seesaw mechanism where a strong AMOC anomaly increases the amount of heat advected north of 26 ∘ N as well as the SSTA, and decreases the heat content and the SSTA south of this section. In order to further understand the origins of this SSTA dipole, the respective contributions of the heat advected by the AMOC versus the Ekman transport and air–sea fluxes have been assessed. We found that at a 5-month lag, the Ekman component mainly contributes to the southern part of the dipole and cumulative air–sea fluxes only explain a small fraction of the SSTA variability. Given that the southern part of the SSTA dipole encompasses the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, our results therefore suggest the potential for AMOC observations from 26 ∘ N to be used to complement existing seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1
ISSN: 0930-7575
NORA Subject Terms: Marine Sciences
Date made live: 05 Jan 2016 13:28 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/512313

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