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Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

Freychet, Nicolas; Duchez, Aurelie; Wu, Chi-Hua; Chen, Chao-An; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Hirschi, Joel; Forryan, Alex; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian L.; Graham, Tim; Andrews, Martin B.; Tu, Chia-Ying; Lin, Shian-Jiann. 2017 Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models. Climate Dynamics, 48 (3). 745-766. 10.1007/s00382-016-3108-5

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© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2016 This document is the author’s final manuscript version of the journal article, incorporating any revisions agreed during the peer review process. Some differences between this and the publisher’s version remain. You are advised to consult the publisher’s version if you wish to cite from this article. The final publication is available at link.springer.com
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Abstract/Summary

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses.Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1007/s00382-016-3108-5
ISSN: 0930-7575
NORA Subject Terms: Marine Sciences
Date made live: 06 Apr 2016 13:06 +0 (UTC)
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/513390

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