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On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

Franzke, C.. 2012 On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (23), L23705. 5, pp. 10.1029/2012GL054244

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Abstract/Summary

This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

Item Type: Publication - Article
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1029/2012GL054244
Programmes: BAS Programmes > Polar Science for Planet Earth (2009 - ) > Environmental Change and Evolution
ISSN: 0094-8276
Additional Information. Not used in RCUK Gateway to Research.: Not subject to U.S. copyright. Published 2012 American Geophysical Union. Further reproduction or electronic distribution is not permitted.
Additional Keywords: Arctic, global warming, null models, statistical test, stochastic trends, temperature trends
Date made live: 28 Jan 2013 14:27
URI: http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/21351

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