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Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia

Barlow, Jos ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4992-2594; Carvalho, Nathália S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0651-6967; Nunes, Cássio Alencar ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2783-0210; Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0683-1142; Alencar, Ane ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5605-7469; Anderson, Liana O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9545-5136; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4134-6708; Baccaro, Fabricio ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4747-1857; Barrett, Mike; Berenguer, Erika ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8157-8792; Bodolai, Kristian; Brando, Paulo Monteiro ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8952-7025; Couto, Thiago B.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2485-4970; Domingues, Tomas Ferreira ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2857-9838; Elias, Fernando ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9190-1733; Feldpausch, Ted R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-7962; Ferreira, Igor José Malfetoni ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1723-3372; Ferreira, Joice N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4008-2341; Flores, Bernardo M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4555-5598; Galbraith, David ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5555-4823; Gardner, Toby Alan; Gloor, Emanuel ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9384-6341; Hirota, Marina ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1958-3651; Kapos, Valerie ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5739-8262; Lapola, David M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2654-7835; Leal, Cecília; Lees, Alexander Charles ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7603-9081; Lyon, Bel; Macedo, Marcia N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8102-5901; Malhi, Yadvinder ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3503-4783; Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes; Marimon Junior, Ben Hur; Meir, Patrick; Mercado, Lina M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4069-0838; Metcalf, Oliver; Miranda, Leonardo de Sousa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6427-8157; Mitchard, Edward T.A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5690-4055; Morton, Douglas C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2226-1124; Nel, Jeanne L.; Oliveira, Rafael Silva ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6392-2526; Phillips, Oliver L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-6168; Rowland, Lucy ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0774-3216; Schietti, Juliana ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1687-4373; Silva, Camila V.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4867-9871; Silva-Junior, Celso H.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1052-5551; Silva, Patrícia S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0410-2971; Silveira, Juliana M.; Silvério, Divino Vicente; Sitch, Stephen ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1821-8561; Tavares, Paulo Amador ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2617-1548; Telhado, Cristina ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4052-1399; Vieira, Ima C.G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1233-318X; Wiederhecker, Helga Correa ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6454-0829. 2026 Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia. Communications Earth & Environment, 7, 746. 11, pp. 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1

Abstract

Amazonia is highly sensitive to climate extremes, yet we lack an Amazon-wide assessment that examines the spatial-temporal changes in these extreme conditions. We address this within seasons and across the hydrological year, using a quantiles approach that integrates the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes and by linking changes in temperature with evapotranspiration. We show that high temperature extremes and temperature-linked measures of water deficit are both changing at a much faster rate than central trends. The 95th percentile of maximum temperatures in the driest period increased by 0.49 °C per decade (dec -1 ) compared to 0.21°C dec -1 for the central trend of mean temperatures for the year. Crucially, over 700,000 square kilometres in central-north Amazonia have experienced increases in extreme dry season temperatures ≥ 0.75 °C dec -1 ( ≥ 3.22 °C over 43 years). Adaptation measures for these rapid changes in climate extremes must include preventing the deforestation and disturbances that amplify risks.

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