Plurality in transformative change: three co-created pathways toward nature-positive Europe(s)

•1. The accelerating decline of biodiversity necessitates transformative change to protect nature and society, which requires innovative actions and governance strategies. This paper advances the conceptual understanding of transformative change by identifying patterns of change in three co-created transformative pathways for a nature-positive Europe, furthers participatory futuring methodologies and identifies patterns of change that can inform anticipatory governance.
•2. Three distinct pathways for a nature-positive Europe from 2024 to 2050 were co-created with 23 participants during a 2.5-day workshop, through backcasting and by using the Nature Futures Framework. Post-workshop interviews with nine participants helped map their understanding of transformative change and its connection to the pathways. The pathways were then validated in a webinar and subsequently analysed with the interviews to identify underlying patterns of change in the pathways.
•3. The analysis identifies distinct patterns of transformative change, each shaped by views of the participants on how change might unfold over time, as reflected in actions and milestones of the pathways. The first pathway, called Dòigh Nàdair, centres on the institutionalisation of biocultural principles, community stewardship and redistribution towards rural economies, with an early emphasis on phasing-out unsustainable practices, shifting societal norms through education, and later embedding polycentric and watershed-based governance. The second, NaturAll, focuses on sufficiency and ecological limits, combining restrictive regulation with participatory programmes, progressive caps and land reallocation, and staged policy development from pilots to broader implementation. The third, Return to Nature, emphasises strengthened government mandates, expert consultation, and mainstreaming of climate and biodiversity goals through innovation and coordinated governance, with crises reinforcing support for reform.
•4. Identifying these diverse patterns of transformative change in the pathways enables a more systematic interpretation of co-created pathways and links pathway actions to broader transformation dynamics. The findings further show that methodological choices shape both the content of the pathways and the diversity of futures produced, highlighting the importance of plural and reflexive pathway development methodologies.