Widespread thermophilization but weak link to climate warming in Europe’s summit plant communities

Recent changes in alpine vegetation are often attributed to climate warming, particularly community composition shifts towards more warmth-associated species, or thermophilization. Here we assess the link between thermophilization and warming across 53 European mountain summits. We combine long-term macroclimatic and microclimatic temperature time series with vegetation surveys in 724 permanent plots, monitored over 21 years, to evaluate a possible thermophilization signal and relate it to rates of change in 10 temperature metrics. We find evidence of both thermophilization of alpine plant communities and an increase in temperatures. However, although these two trends are related when averaged across mountain regions, their relationship is weak at the individual plot scale, especially when considering microclimatic temperature metrics. Instead, substrate conditions and particularly the availability of thermophilic colonizers in the surrounding vegetation have a major influence on plot-level thermophilization rates. We conclude that the response of plant communities to climate change strongly depends on the abiotic and biotic context, and intensified monitoring efforts are needed to reduce the resulting uncertainties.